Races to Follow on 2009 Election Night

By: Nicholas Kowalski

With Tuesday’s off-year elections looming, there are three political battles in particular that have grasped the attention of the keen national media: the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey and the special election in New York’s 23rd Congressionl District.

November 3 will mark the first national elections since President Obama took office ten months ago. The outcome of these elections will serve as a notification to the Obama Administration as to the general mood of the public concerning the direction of our country. Joe Biden and Rahm Emmanuel need a heads-up. From universal single-payer health care – with a “consumer option,” as Speaker Pelosi and friends label their highly controversial plan for a full-fledged government takeover of the nation’s health care industry – to cap-and-trade to [insert liberal democrat agenda item here], the Democrats are riddled with “ideas” on how to kill our nation. The president’s approval rating is 47% and dropping, according to Rasmussen. The results of Tuesday’s elections may come as no surprise, given the level of frustration expressed across the country for Obama’s policies at grassroots tea parties and local health care town hall forums within the preceding months.

In Virginia, Bob McDonnell, the Republican candidate for Governor, has victory in sight. According to a variety of polling organizations, as of Oct 29, McDonnell is leading the Democratic opponent, Creigh Deeds, from anywhere between 10 and 17 points. Virginia, a “purple” state that Obama carried last November, has elected back-to-back Democratic governors and is currently represented by two Democrats in the Senate. However, the notion that Virginia’s independents are suddenly shifting to the right may not be accurate, but rather the democratic base is unenthused, planning to remain home on Tuesday. Bottom line: McDonnell has run a better campaign, and his democratic opponent has suffered further due to national criticism of Obama and Pelosi-Reid’s Congress.

The more interesting gubernatorial race is in the tiny dark blue state of New Jersey. Incumbent Governor Jon Corzine is locked in a dead heat with Republican challenger Chris Christie. Corzine has witnessed rising state unemployment (9.7% in September) and stifling taxes (New Jersey residents pay some of the highest property taxes in the country) during his four years in office. Christie, a former U. S. attorney, has canned over one hundred-thirty public officials on charges of corruption.

Some Republican strategists say that Christie has run a vague campaign, failing to pinpoint his plan of action on key issues such as cutting taxes, state spending, and revamping New Jersey’s state budget. Corzine, on the other hand, who has far outspent Christie and chose not to accept public financing due to his bountiful personal wealth, has had to rely on last-ditch stump efforts from former President Bill Clinton and President Obama in order to remain in the thick of the tight race.

“I’m proud to be President Obama’s partner in building a better America and certainly a better New Jersey,” a gracious Corzine said in lieu of the loving support from his liberal brethren.

The most up-to-date Real Clear Politics average (Oct. 22-30) has Christie edging Corzine, 42%-41%, with the heavily under funded, centrist Independent Chris Daggett receiving a quiet 11.5% of the surveyed vote.

What has evolved into this election’s most fascinating, daytime drama-like grudge match has occurred in upstate New York’s 23rd Congressional District. Entering the weekend, the battle for the district’s empty seat in Congress, which was vacated by Republican John McHugh who accepted Obama’s offer to become Secretary of the U. S. Army, was three-fold. The nominees of the Republican and Independence Parties, state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava; the Democratic and Working Families Parties’ candidate, attorney Bill Owens; and the Conservative Party’s selection, Doug Hoffman are all set to duke it out.

Since it is not a given under New York state law for parties to host primaries in advance of special congressional elections, the county party leaders hand-picked their candidates. In a surprising move, Scozzafava, a pro-gay marriage and pro-choice RINO (Republican In Name Only), was selected as the Republican party’s nominee. As if the nomination had not already brewed a fuss within the GOP, New York Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs publicly stated that Scozzafava’s husband Ron McDougall, a labor activist, had spoken with key local Democrats prior to the nomination of candidates regarding the possibility of the Assemblywoman switching parties.

This race had the makings of a debacle for the New York Republican Party, given the significant chance for success, until Saturday, when Scozzafava announced that she has pulled out; her name will remain on the ballot as the Republican and the Independence nominee, however. In bowing out, the liberal-minded upstate Assemblywoman originally stated that her supporters should vote for Hoffman, the conservative. More recently, she has changed her tune.

“I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same,” Scozzafava said.

So much for all the work the NYRP did in support of Scozzafava up until the last few days. As of this morning, Intrade has projected that Hoffman has a 67% chance of winning, which has risen from 50% since Scozzafava’s announced withdrawal. This district has been represented by a Republican in Congress since 1871; hopefully, there will not be a paradigm shift on Tuesday. With all the madness in mind, it is no surprise that NY-23 has become the most exciting race in the nation.

Hey, conservative Republicans (i.e. not Scozzafava): are you ready? Well, you ought to be, as this Tuesday’s elections should yield a strong foundation for the Party to build from for the 2010 mid-term elections. Whether it be the Commonwealth’s not-so-close gubernatorial race, the Garden State’s deadlocked governor’s contest, or the Congressional battle of NY-23, there is justification for the conservative in us all to have ‘hope’ that ‘change’ is near – without “fundamentally transform[ing] our nation.” Long live the democratic process of the land of stars and stripes.